Solar Cell Production Schedule Returns to Rationality, Inventory Risk Reduces [SMM Survey]

SMM, Oct 21: In September, the operating rate of solar cell producers in China was about 58%, and it is expected to decrease to 54% in October, with the average operating rate of overseas bases being only 24.45%. The effect of cell production cuts has begun to show, and October to November will be a period of significant inventory reduction for solar cells. The production schedule is returning to rationality, and inventory risk is reducing.

By model, the operating rate of Topcon cells was 66.34% in September and is expected to drop below 65% after production cuts in October. Currently, there are about 50 companies mass-producing Topcon cells, with 20 of them having an operating rate of less than 30%, and about 10 companies are in a shutdown state. The Topcon market is highly competitive, and specialized battery makers face the dilemma of "too many monks and too little porridge," with a high idle capacity rate. The high operating rate of Topcon cells is mainly supported by integrated manufacturers, with 17 companies having an operating rate greater than 60%, of which 8 are specialized manufacturers, and the proportion of tolling activity is greater than direct sales. October to November is the inventory reduction period for specialized battery makers, and the effect of production cuts has begun to show. In November, driven by a slight increase in module production schedules, the operating rate of cell makers may rise, while specialized cell makers are expected to maintain the current operating level.

The operating rate of BC cells was 52.47% in September, showing an upward trend in recent months. The supply from manufacturers is continuously increasing, and the demand side is expected to improve. For November to December, the operating rate is expected to stabilize at around 50%.

The operating rate of HJT cells was 30.88% in September, showing a significant increase compared to previous months. During July to August, the demand for HJT cells was poor, and the operating rate of enterprises declined. However, the operating rate is expected to increase in November to December, mainly due to the growth in overseas orders for HJT in the fourth quarter, which has driven the demand for HJT cells.

The annual production of cells in 2024 is expected to be 658.48 GW, an increase of 11.38% compared to 2023. In H1 2024, the operating rate of solar cells will be relatively high, with the monthly production in April reaching the annual peak, slightly lower than the peak monthly production in 2023. This is mainly due to the decline in demand for solar cells in H2 2024, the continuous high inventory of battery makers, and the accelerated phase-out of PERC cells further reducing the operating rate of cells. The monthly production of cells will decline month by month in H2. The production of solar cells in October is expected to be the lowest of the year, with relatively low inventory risk in the remaining two months of the year.